[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS 7N10W 4N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 34W...3S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 27W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S
BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 2S BETWEEN 44W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS
PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST OFF THE COAST...FROM WESTERN
MEXICO TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS LEADING TO MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS FLOW. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
APPARENT IN THIS AREA. SURFACE WIND FLOW IS FROM SOUTHEAST EAST
OF 90W...AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WEST OF 90W. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS WITHIN 15 NM
TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N83W 24N86W 26N89W 29N92W. OTHER
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM CUTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
TOWARD EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND EXITING THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM
35 KT TO 55 KT IN THIS BAND OF WINDS ACCORDING TO THE 30/1500 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE LEVEL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND
IN THE  SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WIND MAXIMUM
BAND. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N65W.
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THIS LOW EASTWARD TO 21N49W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...17N70W...AND 16N74W.
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N64W 17N68W 16N70W 15N73W.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 32N67W...MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW IS PART OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE
32N67W LOW CENTER TO 29N70W AND 31N80W. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N63W...THROUGH 32N66W
TO 30N73W...FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND THEN
IT CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF 28N64W
27N70W 31N80W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA EXITS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THAT AREA INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BECOMES A JET STREAM WITHIN 180 NM TO
240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N63W 24N54W BEYOND 30N38W. THE
30/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS
FROM 50 KT TO 80 KT WEST OF 50W...AND FROM 80 KT TO 100 KT EAST
OF 50W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N30W TO 22N40W
TO 21N49W. THIS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WEST OF 21N49W...AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N65W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE JET STREAM.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER WESTERN AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
8N TO 25N BETWEEN 8W AND 21W.

$$
MT





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