[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W EQ35W 3S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 100-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG
THE N COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE
SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING UPPER LEVELS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GULF...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA AND OVER
FLORIDA. FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS OVER THE NW GULF
WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG 10N ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 30W-70W...INCLUDING NORTHERN
VENEZUELA. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH E PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PERSIST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS TWO FEATURES
PLUS A TROUGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THESE ISLANDS. THE SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NW CORNER OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING NE FLOW FROM PUERTO RICO TO E
CUBA. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N
BETWEEN 61W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER W COLOMBIA...MAINLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF PANAMA. A CLUSTER
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS JUST EAST OF COSTA RICA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB IS OVER THE W/EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 30N61W PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 31N70W
30N75W TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 31N25W...THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 22N40W 21N51W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED N OF
PUERTO RICO ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 20.5N63W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 25N AND NEAR THE LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EAST ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N
OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NE ACROSS CAPE VERDE/CANARY ISLANDS. A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW IS OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 15N15W. SUBTROPICAL JET IS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
GR




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