[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 0.5N30W EQN40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF THE AXIS E OF
23W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIES WITHIN 200 NM TO THE N OF
THE AXIS W OF 37W TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE AREA OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH GENERALLY NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
NW GULF GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS TEXAS AND N MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD N OF 24N WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT THE SKIES S OF THERE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPLYING FAIR
AND WARM WEATHER WITH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES TO THE NORTH OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES...THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE REGION. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF LATE SAT BUT WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. UNTIL THEN...FAIR AND WARM
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUING TO BE IN THE N GULF WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS
NEAR 13N56W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF
THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM COSTA RICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING
IT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE JET AXIS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONT BOUNDARY REMAINS
STUCK TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB LOW LIES
ALONG THE FRONT NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BUT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE LIES 200 NM OR SO NNE OF THE ISLANDS. A REMNANT
TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
THE N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N68W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-60W. A SUB-TROPICAL
JET EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N35W
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN 300-400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N34W 23N47W 22N54W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB LOW LIES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NE OF PUERTO RICO. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 30N AND NEAR THE LOW. FARTHER EAST...A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEWARD
TO BEYOND 32N25W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET IS SPILLING ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER N AFRICA AND
EUROPE.  A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N21W.
AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS ARE NE OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SEWARD ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC NUDGING THE ITCZ PARTIALLY BELOW THE EQUATOR. IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER THIS
REGION CENTERED NEAR 13N56W WITH ITS WIDE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION STRETCHING FROM 35W-80W S OF 20N. AFRICAN DUST
REMAINS IN THE AREA SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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