[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W 0.5N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 75
NM OF THE AXIS W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE AREA OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH GENERALLY NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
NW GULF GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS TEXAS AND N MEXICO
AND INTO THE N GULF W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD N OF 24N WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CLEARING
OUT THE SKIES S OF THERE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPLYING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WITH SE RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES TO THE NORTH
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF LATE SAT.
UNTIL THEN...FAIR AND WARM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING TO BE IN THE N GULF WITH
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS
NEAR 14N58W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF
THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM COSTA RICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING
IT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE JET AXIS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONT BOUNDARY REMAINS
STUCK TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB LOW LIES
ALONG THE FRONT N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BUT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE LIES N OF THE ISLANDS. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N69W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A SUB-TROPICAL
JET EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N37W
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN 300-400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N36W 22N50W 20N59W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB LOW LIES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY N OF PUERTO RICO. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 25W-40W N OF 20N.
SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
IS SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE AND THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED
INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH LIES E OF 25W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
LIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 13N22W. AT THE SURFACE...
A PAIR OF 1025 MB SURFACE HIGHS ARE OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SEWARD ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER
THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 14N58W. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS IN THE AREA
SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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