[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 2N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 13W-16W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S
AMERICA FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE SURFACE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS E TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 92W-95W.  THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO BRINGING A PLUME OF
MOSTLY UPPER LEVELS MOISTURE.   NO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
REGION UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN OVER
THE FAR NW GULF IN RETURN FLOW MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN
60W-75W.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 70W-74W.  FURTHER
W... 20 KT NE FLOW IS ALSO ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 78W-85W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A JETSTREAM WITH E PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA
RICA TO WELL BEYOND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  IN CONTRAST THE YUCATAN
AND NW CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS...TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE SAME AREAS TO
HAVE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 32N39W 25N45W 23N50W 20N60W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT.  A WEAK 1017
MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W ENHANCING SHOWERS.  A
1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AT
24N17W.  AFRICAN DUST IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM
5N-25N BETWEEN 10W-40W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY
FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
25W-40W.  A TROUGH IS FROM 10W-25W N OF 5N.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N55W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 28W-80W.

$$
FORMOSA





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