[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N30W EQ46W 1S50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 1N W OF 44W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
7W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TODAY... CAUSING
SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE HOUSTON AREA.  SOME OF THESE TSTMS COULD
MIGRATE INTO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO BRINGING A PLUME OF MOSTLY
UPPER LEVELS MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  SE WINDS COVER THE
GULF FROM DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW ATLC WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF.  NO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE REGION UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER THE FAR NW GULF IN RETURN FLOW MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERAL SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REGION AROUND A MID/UPPER HIGH
JUST E OF TRINIDAD.  CONDITIONS ARE QUIET IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUBSIDENCE.  IN
BETWEEN A PLUME OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO 15N70W BEYOND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  MOST
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND NEAR/N OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
SETTLE OVER THOSE REGIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITH A LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR RAIN.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N80W.  SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER WESTWARD AND AFFECT COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO HIGHS ARE IN THE AREA... 1029 MB IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N75W
AND 1027 MB IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N21W.  IN BETWEEN.. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO 22N56W STATIONARY TO THE NE TIP OF
HISPANIOLA.  A WEAK LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
21N64W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ABOUT 300 NM.  ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE ALSO BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 21N BETWEEN 62W-68W.  PLUME OF
UPPER MOISTURE IS ALSO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 31N40W.  N OF 24N THE FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME
AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH DIMINISHES.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE S OF 24N AND RETROGRADE JUST A LITTLE AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES WESTWARD SLOWLY BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE W ATLC.
TRADES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION..
WHICH HAS BEEN A HALLMARK OF THIS MARCH AFTER A BLUSTERY
JAN/FEB.  UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  THE RIDGE IS ALSO MUCH FARTHER N THAN AVERAGE WITH
ELY WINDS NOTED AT UPPER LEVELS UP TO 11N.  PATCHY
ALTO/STRATOCUMULUS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF THE
FRONT.  AFRICAN DUST REMAINS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SAME
AREA JUDGING FROM THE MILKY APPEARANCE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES... THOUGH IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AS MUCH AS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.

$$
BLAKE

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