[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N20W 2N30W EQ36W 2S45W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
11W-16W AND 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM 41W WWARD TO INLAND OVER S
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
ESTABLISHED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER WEST OVER N MEXICO
AND THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST U.S. A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FLOWING FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE N GULF
NW OF A LINE FROM 19N94W 26N87W TO N FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS HOLDING ON SE OF THERE CLEARING OUT THE SKIES I
N THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR
FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 32N78W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE BASIN. GENERALLY
ESE/SE FLOW FROM 15-20 KT COVERS THE REGION. THE RETURN SE FLOW
IN THE W GULF IS POOLING SOME MOISTURE AGAINST THE TERRAIN IN
MEXICO AND SPREADING NWARD TO TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE MID-WEST U.S TO OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND N MEXICO. HEAVY
RAIN IS OCCURRING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN TEXAS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE N GULF. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE N GULF...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM NE MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE
WED. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 15N53W. A SUB-TROPICAL
JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH DRAWING
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEWARD FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC
AND SPREADING IT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE WEST OF THE JET
NAMELY W OF 76W IN THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END
OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM JUST N OF PUERTO
RICO TO  HISPANIOLA AND IS CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
REGION. THE MOST ORGANIZED MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY TO THE N OF
THESE ISLANDS AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THERE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. E OF 65W...TYPICAL PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE TRADES. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG 976 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS
REMAINS OFF THE SE TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OUT TO
57W FROM 21N-32N. A SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS ON THE N PERIPHERY
OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
HISPANIOLA TO 32N47W ADVECTING MOISTURE WITHIN 400 NM TO THE
RIGHT OF THE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N41W 23N52W 21N60W AND THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO 32N32W. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
SPILLING OVER THE AXIS...AND THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N15W 19N24W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
JUST E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SPAIN. IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...A LARGE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST LIES ACROSS THE AREA
SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS DUST HAS
BECOME MORE INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AREA OVER THE PAST 3-4
DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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