[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W 2S40W 2S45W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
13W-24W AND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 37W WWARD TO INLAND
OVER S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
ESTABLISHED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER WEST OVER N MEXICO
AND THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST U.S. A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FLOWING FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE N GULF
NW OF A LINE FROM 22N96W 26N88W TO N FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES SE OF THERE CLEARING OUT THE SKIES IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB
HIGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW IS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE NEAR 32N78W. GENERALLY E/SE FLOW COVERS THE REGION.
THE RETURN SE FLOW IN THE W GULF IS POOLING MOISTURE AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND SPREADING NWARD TO TEXAS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THIS REGION ON DOPPLER
RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND
N MEXICO WILL EASE TOWARDS THE COAST AND BECOME
STATIONARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM NE MEXICO TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE WED. ELSEWHERE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 13N55W. A SUB-TROPICAL
JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH DRAWING
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEWARD FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC
AND SPREADING IT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE WEST OF THE JET
NAMELY W OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END
OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM JUST N OF PUERTO
RICO TO  HISPANIOLA AND IS CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER HISPANIOLA. THE MOST ORGANIZED MOISTURE
IS CURRENTLY TO THE N OF THESE ISLANDS AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THERE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG 971 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS
REMAINS OFF THE SE TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OUT TO
65W FROM 23N-30N. A SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS ON THE N PERIPHERY
OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N43W 23N55W 21N62W AND THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N46W TO 32N33W.
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS SPILLING OVER THE AXIS...AND THEN
BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N17W 19N27W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N25W WITH
SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF
THE COLD FRONT. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG NEARLY
STATIONARY MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE AREA. A LARGE AMOUNT
OF SAHARAN DUST IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING SOME OF
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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