[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2S40W. ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-22W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OVER THE REGION AS
A BROAD W ATLC TROUGH LIFTS AWAY AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
TEXAS. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE
PACIFIC OCEAN IS CROSSING N/CNTRL MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS AND
IS PARTIALLY NUDGING OVER THE NW GULF AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS ADVECTING
MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST...WHICH IS PRODUCING BROKEN
LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL TEXAS WILL EASE TOWARDS THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THEN STALL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM NE MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN...
TROPICAL BAND OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL STREAMING
ACROSS THE E/CNTRL CARIBBEAN...ON THE E SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
JET WHICH RANGES FROM COSTA RICA TOWARDS THE SRN BAHAMAS. THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADES HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING MAINLY FROM E TO W OFFSHORE...WHILE MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM LAKE MARACAIBO
TO THE PANAMA BORDER. A STATIONARY FRONT HAS HUNG UP FROM JUST N
OF PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA AND IS CAUSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAY BUT THE CHANCES WILL STILL
BE GOOD FOR SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE AREA...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE SE TIP OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
SW ATLC REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRIMARILY OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS LOCATED ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 32N50W WITH HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE/CIRRUS EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM TO THE SE OF THE AXIS. A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUD BAND FROM
32N43W TO 22N60W THEN STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. BROKEN
LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS UP TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A TILTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
20N50W TO 32N37W WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE AXIS...THEN
BECOMING INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 30N20W 17N28W.
THIS AREA IS DOMINATED BY A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N24W SO
THE TROUGH IS ONLY PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS...WRN SAHARA...AND MOROCCO.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS STILL CENTERED E OF THE
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N51W AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-62W. IN
ADDITION...THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE E
ATLC FROM 20N27W TO 3N40W AND IS ALSO PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE UP TO
550 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AS SUCH...STABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST ACROSS THE ATLC TRADE REGIME WITH HAZY CONDITIONS S OF
20N DUE TO SUSPENDED AFRICAN DUST. IN ADDITION...ITCZ CONVECTION
HAS BEEN LARGELY SUPPRESSED AND THE AXIS IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES
REMOVED FROM THE EQUATOR.

$$
BERG


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net