[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N20W EQ30W 2S40W 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN AROUND 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-13W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE CORNER
OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE
EPAC ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING SWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. LOW
LEVEL E/SE WINDS PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...POOLING SOME
MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO JUST NORTH OF
TAMPICO AND ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST INTO THE ATLC OCEAN TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL U.S..THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE SE
RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 70-90
KT IS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA/BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ALL
THE WAY NE ACROSS COSTA RICA...HISPANIOLA AND THE W/CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.   AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY AND LIES OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
VERY CLOSE TO HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN
TENDS TO PRODUCE  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING OVER
THESE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO SE U.S. THE POLAR JET
LOCATED ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA/BAHAMAS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG
40W AND A TROUGH LIES ALONG 23W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N45W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N53 20N65W
AND THE BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A BAND OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
ENHANCING THE COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM
31N53W TO 26N66W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE
SFC TROUGH. ANOTHER BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NE ALONG
2ON60W 25N62W ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC WITH A 1027 MB
HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 29N32W. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ. IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE EAST OF 60W AND SOUTH OF
20N...LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.


$$
GR




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