[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W EQ46W 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 100 NM MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-23W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PULLING EASTWARD OVER THE W ATLANTIC AS A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER N MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
PREVAIL. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR OVER THE SE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. SFC WINDS
TURN FROM NORTHERLY E OF 86W TO EASTERLY AND THEN SELY W OF 93W.
THE E/SE WINDS ARE POOLING MOISTURE IN THE W GULF AND CAUSING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THICK LOW
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE
TOPOGRAPHY AND SPREAD 125 NM OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF. THIS
MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWARD INTO TEXAS CARRIED BY THE SE RETURN
FLOW. ONE MORE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING SE RETURN
FLOW TO ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N58W WITH ITS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. A
SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
UPPER HIGH DRAWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING IT OUT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT AS
IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W
ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY AND LIES OVER
HISPANIOLA. OCCASIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PARTS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
NLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED MAINLY OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED
HORIZONTAL FROM PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THESE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC W OF 65W N OF 28N. A
POLAR JET FLOWS AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CONVERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
RIDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE
CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND AN AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SE GULF TO THE BAHAMAS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N44W 25N56W AND
THE BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
27N WITH MOISTURE MORE DIFFUSE S OF THERE. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS ENHANCING THE COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ENTERS
THE AREA ALONG 32N51W 27N67W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA FROM 30W-50W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N36W GENERATING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH LIES E OF 30W N OF 25N. A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET
EXTENDS FROM 27N24W TO 32N16W NEWARD TO PORTUGAL ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 22N TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. A
COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE NE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
32N8W 26N14W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE AREA PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 55W
EWARD BETWEEN 8N-20N LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.


$$
CANGIALOSI



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