[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 2N30W EQ46W 3S44W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-26W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL...S OF THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PULLING EASTWARD OVER THE W ATLANTIC AS A
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER N MEXICO AND
THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR OVER THE SE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NRN KENTUCKY AND
EXTENDS SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. SFC WINDS TURN
FROM NORTHERLY E OF 87W TO EASTERLY W OF 87W. THE E WINDS ARE
POOLING MOISTURE IN THE W GULF AND CAUSING UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THICK LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND FOG ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY AND SPREAD
125 NM OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF. ONE MORE RELATIVELY COOL DAY WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST ALLOWING SE RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN ON TUESDAY. THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO WILL EXPAND NWD
TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS STRONGER
RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N58W WITH ITS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
UPPER HIGH DRAWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING IT OUT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT AS
IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W
ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
LIES FROM HISPANIOLA TO 15N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING
OVER HISPANIOLA AND OVER PARTS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. NLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED MAINLY OVERCAST
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN NICARAGUA TO
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
PUSH INTO THE PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC W OF
65W N OF 28N. THE POLAR JET COMING AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS CONVERGING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
RACING ACROSS CUBA...PRODUCING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND AN
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SE GULF TO THE BAHAMAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N46W 25N58W
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH MOISTURE
MORE DIFFUSE S OF THERE. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE
COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG
32N56W 28N67W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD
BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTEND FROM NE CUBA ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SFC TROUGH. STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM 30W-50W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N39W GENERATING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH LIES E OF 30W N OF 25N ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
20N SPREADING NEWARD TO PORTUGAL. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE AREA LIMITING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.


$$
CANGIALOSI


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