[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 2N36W EQ50W. ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER PARTS OF IVORY COAST...SE GUINEA...AND LIBERIA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-30W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL...S OF
THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER WRN KENTUCKY EXTENDS SWD INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES (FOR LATE
MARCH) AND GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL
DAYS AGO IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND AN
UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHIFTING E FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERNMOST BOUNDARY OF THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
DRAGS INTO THE GULF...EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND A NARROW SWATH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE SE GULF IS HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES. LOW-LEVEL E/SE
FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS CAUSING BROKEN
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF ERN MEXICO EXTENDING OFFSHORE ABOUT 120 NM. THESE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NWD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST BY MON AS
STRONGER RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDING THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEWD THROUGH
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE ATLC. A FEW AREAS OF CIRRUS ARE SPREADING
FROM S AMERICA TOWARDS THE GREATER ANTILLES WITHIN THIS S/SW
FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REMNANTS OF
A COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA
SW TO NICARAGUA AND NLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED MAINLY
OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN
NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THE NRN PART OF THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS
REGION ON MON AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE
AREA E OF FLORIDA. THE POLAR JET COMING AROUND THE SW SIDE OF
THE LOW FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS CONVERGING WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET RACING ACROSS CUBA...AND IS ESSENTIALLY
PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE FROM S FLORIDA TO
THE NRN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT LIES IN THE AREA FROM 32N49W TO
25N60W TO HISPANIOLA BUT IS BECOMING SHEARED AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SCURRIES OUT INTO THE N ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT
N OF 28N...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF
28N TO HISPANIOLA. QUICK-MOVING MID-LATITUDE FLOW EXTENDS N OF
23N WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER RIDGE ALONG 47W AND A TROUGH ALONG
28W HEADING TOWARDS NW AFRICA. THIS AREA IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE...ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N38W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG 28W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM MADEIRA ISLAND TO 27N30W BUT IS
DEPRIVED OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. FARTHER S...A LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
12N57W BUT THEN THE FLOW FEEDS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 4N40W. THE AREA FROM
5N-20N E OF 47W IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
A LIGHT HAZE OVERSPREADING THE ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

$$
BERG


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