[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N23W 2N41W 1N51W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-22W AND S OF 1.5N W
OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...
ONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF CAUSING A BRIEF INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS WITH ANOTHER ONE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  DYING STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST AND HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY
SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 25N
W OF 93W.  E TO SE WINDS COVER THE GULF.. MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS
EXCEPT IN THE FAR SW AND NW GULF AREAS.  THE NEXT FRONT FOR LATE
WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.
UNTIL AT LEAST THEN...FAIR AND WARM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING TO BE IN THE NW
GULF WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS
NEAR 12N55W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF
THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM COSTA RICA TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING
IT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE JET AXIS.  AT THE
SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONT BOUNDARY REMAINS
STUCK TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE TSTMS ARE N OF 17N FROM THE US VIRGIN ISLAND
WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE N OF THE
ISLANDS. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THE AREA...PROBABLY AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA THE MOST.  VERY DRY AIR...DEWPOINTS BELOW 70F... IS
IN THE SE CARIBBEAN PARTIALLY AS RESULT OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND CONTINUED DRY AIR FROM AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAKS MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE E AND W ATLC
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN BETWEEN. A 1027 MB HIGH IS IN THE W
ATLC NEAR 31N67W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
AND GULF OF MEXICO.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE E ATLC FROM
A DISTANT HIGH SW OF PORTION.  OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT LIES IN
THE MIDDLE FROM 31N31W 26N39W 22N50W STATIONARY TO 20N65W WHERE
A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS SITTING.  MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT WITH THE MOST
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 30N AND NEAR THE LOW. SUBTROPICAL
JET EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N35W TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITHIN 300-400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE AXIS.  FARTHER EAST...A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEWARD
TO BEYOND 32N25W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET IS SPILLING ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER N AFRICA AND
EUROPE.  A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N19W.  THE
FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE OVER W AFRICA TO PRODUCING SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 10N BETWEEN W
MALI AND 14W.  IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TO COVER THIS REGION CENTERED NEAR 12N55W WITH ITS
WIDE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION STRETCHING FROM 35W-80W S OF 20N.
AFRICAN DUST REMAINS IN THE AREA SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
BLAKE

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