[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 175 NM TO
THE NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-21W AND 24W-32W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN
38W-41W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS CLEARED THE ENTIRE AREA. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER TEXAS NEAR 33N96W ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR
INTO THE BASIN. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-25 KT ARE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD E
OF 93W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING AGAINST THE SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND THEN UP THE PLATEAU
ALONG 18N97W 22N101W 27N105W 32N108W. THICK LOW
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE
TOPOGRAPHY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF W OF
92W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASIN WIDE. A WARM-UP WILL BE IN STORE
BY EARLY-MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N59W WITH ITS
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 17N
WITH THE DRIEST AIR TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH BUT DRYING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
IS CONTAINED S OF 16N AND W OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS...EASTERN
CUBA AND TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS. BROKEN CLOUDS ARE MAINLY
WITHIN 200 NM OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SEA WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS. THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE SEWARD AND WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.
THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
S OF 30N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 994 MB LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 35N70W TO 31N67W ACROSS THE SE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREAD A FEW HUNDRED NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MOST
ORGANIZED RAIN IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
LOCATED 150 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARKED BY A LINE OF
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD AND
BUILDING IN. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE NE AND DEEPEN. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS
DRAPED FROM A STRONG 967 MB LOW PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 42N35W AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG 32N29W 26N38W 24N49W. A LINE OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT A PAIR OF 1017 MB HIGHS ARE
LOCATED NEAR 23N57W AND 21N37W WITH SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING
TO THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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