[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS CLEARED THE ENTIRE AREA. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
AIR INTO THE BASIN. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-25 KT ARE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
WIDESPREAD E OF 93W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING AGAINST THE
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND THEN UP THE
PLATEAU ALONG 18N98W 23N102W 28N107W 31N110W. THICK LOW
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE
TOPOGRAPHY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF W OF
94W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASIN WIDE. A WARM-UP WILL BE IN STORE
BY EARLY-MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N58W WITH ITS
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 75W S OF 17N
WITH THE DRIEST AIR TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH DRYING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS
CONTAINED S OF 13N AND W OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA
AND TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS. BROKEN CLOUDS ARE MAINLY WITHIN
200 NM OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SEA WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS. THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SEWARD AND WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
S OF 30N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 999 MB LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 33N72W TO 31N69W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREAD A FEW HUNDRED NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MOST
ORGANIZED RAIN IS TO THE E OF THE LOW FROM 31N-34W BETWEEN
62W-66W. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BUILDING IN. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED
FROM A STRONG 965 MB LOW PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N37W AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 32N30W 26N41W THEN AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 23N50W.
A LINE OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH 150
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT A 1020 MB
STATIONARY HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 20N46W WITH SURFACE RIDGING
STRETCHING TO THE EAST ATLANTIC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SO OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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