[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N30W 1S40W 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN AROUND
175 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-25W...29W-35W AND 40W-43W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL
BETWEEN 40W-51W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250
NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 90W. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF
70-90 KT EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL MEXICO...
THE GULF SOUTH OF 26N AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS JET IS ADVECTING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF...MAINLY WEST OF 90W. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA
PARTICULARLY EAST OF 90W. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING
AGAINST THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND
THEN UP THE PLATEAU. CLOUDINESS ARE DIMINISHED OVER MEXICO.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ARE STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST AND THE STATES OF VERACRUZ
AND TABASCO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING SELY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 9N61W AT UPPER LEVELS IS
DOMINATED MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD...STAYING
MAINLY EAST OF 75W. AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA TO THE
COAST OF HONDURAS. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NLY WINDS OF 20-25
KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN. A BAND OF
BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS OVER
THE COAST OF HONDURAS WHILE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD HAITI AND THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER EARLY TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN SUN FROM HAITI TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
S OF 30N. A JETSTREAM OF 90-110 KT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA ALONG 31N64W 24N70W 21N75W. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N29W...THEN
CONTINUES SW TO 23N44W. A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS
POINT TO 23N57W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IS ALONG 23N57W 31N61W.
A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE BUILDING IN. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN
SEA ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC WITH TWO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 20N40W AND 24N51W.

$$
GR


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