[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-28W.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 35W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N91W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N93W 19N96W.  PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO INLAND MEXICO...INITIALLY TO THE
BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND LATER UP THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU ALONG 19N96W 19N97W 25N100W 27N104W 31N110W. OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE BASE OF THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM THE GULF LOW TO S FLORIDA ALONG 26N82W 25N80W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY S OF THE FRONT ALONG
THE COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SE FLOW.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 27N.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN...
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 72W-77W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA PRODUCING SW TO W
FLOW.  A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN E OF
85W AND S OF 14N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA
ALONG 32N41W 26N60W 24N70W 19N96W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT E
OF 50W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DEPICTS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE LEEWARD NEAR 21N44W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N20W 30N30W
25N40W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC N OF 10N.  AN E/W RIDGE IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN W AFRICA AND S AMERICA FROM
EQ-10N BETWEEN 1W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA




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