[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND
WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE 2.5N43W 2.5N51W. A CLUSTER OF WEAKENING
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 2S TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF. A SUBTROPICAL JET
OF 70-80 KT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...THE GULF NORTH OF 25N AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE JET IS
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM
20N96W 24N90W TO JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. AS OF 1500 UTC...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED NEARLY HORIZONTALLY FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF THEN CONTINUES
ALONG 25N95W 20N96.5W 23.6N100W TO 31N110W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26W BETWEEN
89W-91W. LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF...PRODUCING STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF
WEST OF 90W AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE  BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE N AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG FRONT NEAR 24N92W. LOW PRES WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MIAMI DOPPLER
RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE BASIN
WEST OF 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IS AFFECTING PANAMA...
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N. 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE SEA. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN CUBA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ACROSS
THIS AREA FROM 14N-23N. AT THE SURFACE...TWO STRONG AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS EXTEND
S OF 32N. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N47W THEN
CONTINUES NEARLY WESTWARD TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BAND OF
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE
FRONT. A WEAKER COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG 31N27W 25N40W
24N48W. A BROKEN LINE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN AROUND 1O0 NM OF THIS FRONT. BESIDES FOR SOME WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FLOWING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE OCEAN SOUTH OF
25N.

$$
GR



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