[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS FROM 18W WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 1W-4W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF
OF MEXICO ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N.
SOUTH OF 25N...WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EXISTS. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SOLID LINE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
U.S. GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO NORTH FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MOVE
NEWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED NEARLY
HORIZONTALLY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 25N81W 25N88W
TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N97W AND ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT. OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AN MCS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N94W
WITH CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 92W-95W. THICK LOW CLOUDS
ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SFC WINDS ARE NORTHEASTERLY FROM 15-25 KT WHILE
LIGHTER E/SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GFS FORECASTS A
COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE BASIN. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE UNUSUAL COLD FOR LATE MARCH.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SEAS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N60W WITH ITS
WIDE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF
80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SCATTERED ACROSS
COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA STAYING
MOSTLY S OF 16N AND W OF 40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
W OF 25W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA
FROM 16N-25N. AT THE SURFACE...TWO STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WITH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS EXTEND S OF
32N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 976 MB LOW NEAR 40N49W ALONG
32N51W 27N66W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BANDS OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED 250 NM OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT
ENHANCING AN ACCELERATION IN THE NWLY WINDS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY NEAR
23N68W. A WEAKER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N22W 27N30W
24N40W. A BROKEN LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF THIS FRONT. BESIDES FOR SOME WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FRONTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF
25W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES UNDER THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ. AT
THE SFC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N15W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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