[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS FROM 20W WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 1W-4W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF
OF MEXICO ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N. SOUTH OF 26N...MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE EXISTS. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE MOVING NEWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED
NEARLY HORIZONTALLY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 25N81W
24N90W THEN STATIONARY TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N97W AND
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIN BANDS OF
MULTILAYER CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT. THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC WINDS ARE NORTHEASTERLY FROM
15-25 KT WHILE LIGHTER E/SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME COMPLETELY STATIONARY LATER
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N60W WITH ITS
WIDE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF
81W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SCATTERED ACROSS
MANY COUNTRIES IN NORTHERN S AMERICA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS
FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA STAYING
MOSTLY S OF 16N AND W OF 40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS. SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE BASIN.


ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
W OF 30W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA
FROM 16N-24N. AT THE SURFACE...TWO STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WITH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED TO NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS EXTEND IN THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 984 MB LOW NEAR 38N54W ALONG
32N55W 28N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BANDS OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT.  A WEAKER
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N24W 27N33W 24N40W. A BROKEN
LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF
THIS FRONT. BESIDES FOR SOME WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FRONTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN
THE CARIBBEAN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF
30W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES UNDER THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ. AT
THE SFC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N9W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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