[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 2N45W 1N50W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
2S-10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-43W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 24N90W.  MULTILAYERED BROKEN CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF FRONT.  A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO MEXICO AND TO THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS ALONG 26N80W 23N94W 20N98W 25N100W 29N101W.  OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE W GULF N
OF FRONT.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG IS
FROM THE BASE OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST.  MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE FRONTS.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SE FLOW.  PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF
25N.  EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 24N90W THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION.  A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SW TO THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE E GULF AND S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 72W-75W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-72W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA PRODUCING SW TO W
FLOW.  A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN E OF
80W AND S OF 15N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA
ALONG 32N57W 28N70W 26N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 65W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DEPICTS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  A WEAK
1018 MB HIGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N64W.  ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N28W 25N40W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC N OF 10N.  AN E/W RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN W AFRICA AND S AMERICA FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN
1W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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