[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N25W 1N36W 1N50W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3W BETWEEN
EQ AND 5N. MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF
AXIS FROM 15W-19W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 28W-32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG S OF 3N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. A 70-80 KT
SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO TO
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE JET IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NW OF A LINE FROM 21N96W 24N90W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SE OF THIS LINE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS
FL TO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE W END OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE
STARTED MOVING NWD WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS OFF THE S TX
AND N MEXICO COASTS. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PRODUCING STRONG NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N.

CARIBBEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER S AMERICA IS FLOWING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE
IS BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EWD AND STAYING MAINLY S OF 18N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE ELY TRADE WINDS. THE
SURFACE FLOW BECOME SELY W OF 80W. PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE PASSING N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N BETWEEN
65W 70W...ALSO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA N OF THE CANNEL.

ATLANTIC...
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N OF THE AREA
HAS FLATTENED MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...W OF
AROUND 50W...WITH MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N66W TO SE FLORIDA. A NARROW BAND
OF MID-LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. SURFACE
1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 22N57W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE
ATLC BETWEEN 25W-50W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 24N44W
WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING TO 20N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N38W TO 29N54W. A BROKEN LINE OF MULTILAYER
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF 28N...STRETCH 100 NM
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT. A BROAD AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 25W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 15N-25N E OF 35W. SURFACE
1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N14W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 3N23W WITH RIDGE
EXTENDING E-W FROM THE CIRCULATION TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
6N11W AND W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W.

$$
DGS


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net