[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W EQ36W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
21W-26W AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 41N-45N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE
RIDGE HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IT WAS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. A WEAKENED SUB-TROPICAL...75-85 KT...JET
EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO TO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE JET IS ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NW OF A LINE FROM 21N96W 24N90W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SE OF
THIS LINE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO S MEXICO 19N96W...THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO
25N100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PRODUCING
STRONG NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. CONSIDERABLE
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER S AMERICA IS FLOWING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
MOISTURE IS BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD AND STAYING
MAINLY S OF 18N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF
75W. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADES. THE SURFACE FLOW BECOME SELY W OF 80W. PATCHY
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO
THE NE OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
RATHER ZONAL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC. A
FLATTENING MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W
ATLANTIC W OF 55W. SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N62W.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-55W. A
COMPLEX SERIES OF CYCLONES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THIS AREA...MOST OF THEM ARE NORTH OF 32N...HOWEVER TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT
EXTENDS 32N39W 28N55W 29N57W THEN WARM FRONT TO 32N62W. LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N29W
23N50W THEN AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 19N61W. A BROKEN LINE
OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF
28N...STRETCH 100 NM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A BROAD AMPLIFIED
MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 30W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 15N-25N
E OF 40W. SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N23W.

$$
DGS

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