[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220459
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 1N30W EQ36W 1S46W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY WITHIN 175 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-28W AND 38W-44W. A SMALL
PATCH OF MODERATE WEAKENING CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN
13W-15W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF AND W
ATLANTIC WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 77W/78W. THIS RIDGE HAS
BECOME CONSIDERABLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IT WAS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. A WEAKENED SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS
MEXICO TO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE JET IS ADVECTING
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NW OF A LINE FROM
20N96W 26N87W 27N80W. SE OF THIS LINE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
DAYTONA BEACH TO S MEXICO ALONG 29N81W 24N88W 19N96W...THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS TO 25N100W. ONLY THIN BANDS OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. THICK LOW
CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS ARE SWLY FROM 15-20 KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH STRONGER N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWARD AND BECOME MORE HORIZONTAL ORIENTED
TO A POSITION FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL FORM AND
CROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N57W WITH ITS
WIDE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN E OF
75W. CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER S AMERICA IS
FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
MOISTURE IS BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD AND STAYING
MAINLY S OF 18N. ANOTHER MID-UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE EPAC
NEAR 8N95W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AT THE
SURFACE... PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADES. THE SURFACE FLOW BECOME SELY W OF 80W. PATCHY
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO
THE NE OF THE AREA AND ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL OROGRAPHY. MODERATE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

ATLANTIC...
A RATHER ZONAL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC. A
A FLATTENING MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 26N62W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 30W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX SERIES OF CYCLONES
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA...MOST OF
THEM ARE NORTH OF 32N...HOWEVER TWO COLD FRONTS ARE IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT IS DRAPED FROM A 985 MB
LOW NEAR 40N44W ALONG 32N44W 30N55W 30N58W. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 350-400 NM SE OF THE
WESTERN-MOST FRONT AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N32W 24N46W THEN
AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 19N62W. A BROKEN LINE OF
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF
28N...STRETCH 100 NM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A BROAD AMPLIFIED
MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 30W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 15N-25N
E OF 40W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N23W
PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST ATLANTIC.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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