[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-19W AND 21W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
CONSOLIDATING MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINLY
SE OF A LINE ALONG 23N98W 26N88W TO NORTH FLORIDA. NW OF THIS
LINE...DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS THE RULE. AT THE SFC...THERE IS
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1014 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
24N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO S MEXICO
NEAR 18N95W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND THEN UP THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU ALONG 19N97W 22W100 25N104W 31N110W. A NEW 1014 MB LOW
HAS FORMED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W WITH A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N84W AND A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NEWARD OF THE LOW TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
ALL OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES AIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SE OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE FROM
S MEXICO TO CENTRAL/NORTH FLORIDA. THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
TSTMS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING NEWARD. NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
HAS BEGUN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ADVECTING A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE BASIN. THE COMPLEX SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
CLEAR THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN.

CARIBBEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N60W WITH ITS WIDE
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SCATTERED
ACROSS COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND BREAKING UP AS IT
TRAVELS EASTWARD STAYING MOSTLY S OF 12N AND W OF 37W. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 25W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN FROM 14N-25N. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 965 MB LOW PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N46W AND ENTERS THE
AREA ALONG 32N38W 25N63W THEN STATIONARY TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A
LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH MOISTURE MORE DIFFUSE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT.
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC E OF
25W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N30W.
MOST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS RAIN FREE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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