[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N20W 2N30W 3N40W 4N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 10W-14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
BRAZIL FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 50W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF THE
FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH 15-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  RIDGE AXIS IS
ALONG 92W MOVING E. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SE
SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...
AND JAMAICA PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS.  RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS
RAIN AND HEAVY SHOWERS JUST S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-67W.  ELSEWHERE... TRADES ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM BARBADOS TO COSTA
RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W PRODUCING NW FLOW.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W PRODUCING WSW FLOW.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN LESSING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ANY HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT...SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N69W 27N74W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE TROUGH.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W
27N60W 25N70W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N52W 22N61W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE AREA EXCEPT FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE AID OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AGAIN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN
30W-50W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 5N37W.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net