[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 5N20W 2N30W 2N40W 5N52W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
14W-18W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 31W-34W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF THE
FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH 15-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  RIDGE AXIS IS
ALONG 92W MOVING E. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SE
SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...
AND JAMAICA PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS.  RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS
RAIN AND HEAVY SHOWERS JUST S OF PUERTO RICO.  ELSEWHERE...
TRADES ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN PRODUCING AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM BARBADOS TO COSTA RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING NW FLOW.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W
PRODUCING WSW FLOW.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT...SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC N OF 20N W
OF 50W. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN MOVING QUICKLY ENE ALONG THE
LINE 32N58W 27N59W TO 23N63W. THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 29N/30N BETWEEN
40W-58W. THIS IS PRODUCING AND AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 32N52W TO 27N56W. OVERNIGHT...
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY FORM  ALONG THE OLD
BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVER
THE WESTERN ATLC. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE SEEN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC...BUT THEY ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
MOST PRONOUNCED FEATURE IS A WEAK 1015 MB LOW THAT IS CENTERED
NEAR 29.5N 77W. THIS LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY E-SE. HIGH PRES RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL BUILD SEWD SUN WITH
THESE WEAK FEATURES PUSHING SEWD BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SE
BAHAMAS.

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN
32N-50W. E OF 32W THE FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL...EXCEPT FOR A
WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N27W TO 21N35W.

OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 4N41W. THE HIGH IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 28W.

$$
FORMOSA


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