[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N20W 2.5N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 1.5S-EQ
BETWEEN 50W-53W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER NORTHERN
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF ALONG 29.5N94W 28.5N89W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N
OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH 15-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE BEGINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS...JUST SOUTH OF GUATEMALA AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF U.S. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW S OF THE FRONT WILL EXPAND EWD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TODAY THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WNW-W UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN OVER THE ENTIRE SEA. AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN...THANKS TO A
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS AREA ARE JUST OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TRADES ARE TRANSPORTING SOME PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
GENERATING SOME LOW LEVELS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BY
THIS EVENING AND THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE BASIN...REACHING AGAIN NEAR 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN
COAST ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-70W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-50W...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 20N E OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ENE OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 7N42W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW  IS FROM THE EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N54W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO
NEAR 24N-66.5W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N-50W TO
JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 100-130 NM EAST OF THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH FROM 28N-34N. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. WEST OF THE FRONT...THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG 31N65W
28N70W 26N77W. A PATCH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OBSERVED FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 61W-69W.  A
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 27N39W.


$$
GR




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net