[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 3N30W 4N40W 4N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 1W-5W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 16W-18W... AND FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N88W.  RETURN SW FLOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS AND THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
95W-100W.  SLY RETURN FLOW OVER E TEXAS AND S LOUISIANA IS
PRODUCING A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ALONG 29N100W 30N97W 29N90W.
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 30N79W
28N80W 27N84W.  NO CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE ON EACH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY WLY
FLOW.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF
BETWEEN 22N-27N.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE THE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF.  THE WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT FURTHER
N INTO TEXAS.  THE COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE DOWN TO S
FLORIDA WITH NO CONVECTION AND LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER N COLOMBIA AS THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE.  15-20 KT TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA PRODUCING SW
FLOW.  A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER COLOMBIA
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT...THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE TRADES.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1013 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 31N78W.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  A SMALL WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N74W.  ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW IS
FURTHER E NEAR 33N69W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO
31N74W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE
FLORIDA COAST.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N36W 28N54W.  BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER SE AT 25N43W.  A 995 MB LOW W OF
PORTUGAL EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY THIN OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 20N E OF 52W. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE DUST IS RESTRICTING SURFACE
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OR EAST CARIBBEAN.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
ATLANTIC N OF 20N.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE TROPICS NEAR 5N40W.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N
BETWEEN 20W-75W.  EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS DUE TO LACK OF
UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

$$
FORMOSA


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