[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180623
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N20W 3N30W 4N40W 4N50W.
WEAKENING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N88W.  RETURN SW FLOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS AND THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
95W-100W.  SLY RETURN FLOW OVER E TEXAS AND S LOUISIANA IS
PRODUCING A WARM FRONT ALONG 29N98W 30N94W 29N90W.  THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 29N80W 29N83W.  NO
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  SLIGHT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
ON EACH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY WLY FLOW.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 22N-27N.  EXPECT...THE
SURFACE HIGH TO STAY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THUS
CONTINUE THE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF.  THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE FURTHER N INTO TEXAS.  THE COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA WILL
MOVE DOWN TO S FLORIDA WITH NO CONVECTION AND LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CHANGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 73W-75W MOVING NE WITH UPPER LEVEL STEERING.  15-20 KT
TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A SMALL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  A RIDGE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA PRODUCING SW FLOW.  A GOOD AMOUNT
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER COLOMBIA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TO
SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO CHANGE IN THE SURFACE
TRADES.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT ID OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N74W 29N80W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 75W-77W.  A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1021 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N55W.  A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N40W 27N50W 25N65W.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1021 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT 26N43W.  A SURFACE LOW W OF
PORTUGAL EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY THIN...REMAINS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  THE DUST EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ
NORTHWARD TO 20N E OF ABOUT 52W. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE
DUST IS RESTRICTING SURFACE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC OR EAST CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 5N40W.  BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 20W-75W.  EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

$$
FORMOSA


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