[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N3W 2N12W 4N25W 3N35W 5N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 1W-5W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 46W-51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
27N82W TO 26N86W...THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE GULF LATER TODAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS IN
THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 93W HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY.
EXCEPT FOR BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE ELY WINDS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA AND FAR N TEXAS...WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND THE
FRONT WEAKENING WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE GULF ARE RATHER QUIET

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-83W WITH AXIS FROM JAMAICA TO THE PANAMA
COSTA RICA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF
A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF 73W PRODUCING SW FLOW...AND ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM VENEZUELA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN 64W AND 78W
WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 32N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
26N78W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH E OF 71W. ANOTHER
TROUGH SEPARATES TO HIGH PRES CENTERS...ONE TO THE N OF THE AREA
AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N40W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N34W
TO 28N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER OF
THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
TROUGH TO AROUND 40W...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 30N11W TO 26N16W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY THIN
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE ITCZ NWD TO 20N E OF 52W.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N40W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN
20W-60W.

$$
DGS

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