[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N1W 4N20W 2N35W 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 4N E OF 6W AND WITHIN 140 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 10W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 28W TO 33W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE NORTHING GULF COAST ALONG
30N. MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO
OVER THE SE US COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THEN INCREASE TO NEAR
70 TO 80 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
AT THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO HAVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WHERE MID AND UPPER LEVEL COLDS ARE
BEING ADVECTED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN HAS SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY W ON THE STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC DIPPING INTO THE FAR
NE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE N OF 20N
FROM 50W TO 75W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N55W TO 24N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS
NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N179W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 16N45W N TO BEYOND 32N43W. AT
THE SURFACE A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N51W. DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N22W TO 20N27W. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N18W SW TO 26N24W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER E ATLC FROM 6N-18N E OF 45W...HOWEVER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AREA DO NOT INDICATE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 8N15W 5N25W 4N33W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 20W.

$$
DGS

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