[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 2.5N52W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 3N BETWEEN 7W-14W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-31W AND WITHIN 75 NM
OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH FROM THE ATLC CONTROLS THE AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NW GULF.  FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND SHOULD ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN NE WINDS.  FOR NOW BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 89W MOSTLY BECAUSE OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE
FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  UPPER RIDGING IS THE RULE
ALOFT WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN SE TEXAS FOR SAT WITH A FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS THE RULE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM NEAR PUERTO
RICO TO NICARAGUA AND A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.  A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMED OVER W PUERTO RICO WITH OTHER ISOLATED
TRADEWIND SHOWERS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN... OTHERWISE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BENIGN.  DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY
DROPPED TO NEAR 70F OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A BIT DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.  OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF AFRICAN DUST COULD
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR LOWER THAN
AVERAGE TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CONTROLS THE SUBTROPICAL PART OF
THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N54W 25N62W STATIONARY TO
23N74W SLICING THE HIGH IN TWO.  ONE HIGH CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE OF THE US E COAST NEAR 29N73W AND THE OTHER IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N45W.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 60W WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA N OF 20N.  ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS LEFT THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY
WAIT FOR ANOTHER LOW TO FORM S OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO INVIGORATE ITS
EASTWARD MOTION.  IN THE E ATLC...STRONG CUT-OFF LOW E OF THE
AZORES HAS PUSHED ANY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR S INTO THE AREA WITH
AXIS FROM WESTERN SAHARA TO 25N45W.   MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
CONTROLS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING ALONG ABOUT
45W WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES.. PART OF A LARGER
TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE AZORES LOW TO 31N20W THEN
13N27W.  UPPER RIDGING HAS NUDGED ITS WAY PRETTY FAR TO THE N
FOR MID MARCH.. LYING FROM 6N38W TO 7N58W.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE ITCZ.  AFRICAN DUST DOES
REMAIN A FACTOR... WITH LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTING A FAIR
CONCENTRATION N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 20N E OF 47W.

$$
BLAKE

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net