[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 5N12W 3N26W 2N38W INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 10W-21W AND S OF 3N E OF
5W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS
FROM 3N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
5W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 5W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-35W AND W OF 46W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER S GEORGIA/N FLORIDA WITH THE
RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS
GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS N OF 24N W OF 88W TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO OVER THE SE US
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN EASTERLY
FLOW AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC CLIPS THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 75W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA GIVING THE S CARIBBEAN SW UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HAVE A FIRM HOLD OF THE AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS. THINNING AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SLIGHT HAZY CONDITIONS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN W OF 55W TO JUST E OF FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 24N72W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR
23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT TO THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 16N49W N TO BEYOND 32N44W. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N48W WITH A RIDGE
COVERING THE MOST OF THE ATLC S OF 30N E OF THE FRONT TO 30W. A
VERY WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED GALE
CENTER IS REMAINS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W TO 18N31W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W SW TO 27N28W CUTTING
OFF A 1016 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N16W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURE AGAIN TODAY IS THE DENSE AFRICAN
DUST THAT REMAINS OVER E ATLC FROM 6N-18N E OF 46W SUPPRESSING
THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S...SEVERELY LIMITING CLOUD FORMATION AND
VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLEARING IS OBSERVED FROM 10N-15N E OF 24W WHICH IS S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N31W TO OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 9N58W ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE MOST OF
THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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