[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N23W 2N35W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. THE ITCZ
CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE SINCE LAST NIGHT. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 1N E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 2W-8W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS E OF 23W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 23W-42W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG DOT THE AREA S OF 3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 20W ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE W ATLC E OF
FLORIDA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE E GULF EXTENDING
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 23N84W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO 24N90W THEN DISSIPATING TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 28N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF
24N E OF 83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS OVER S GEORGIA WITH THE RIDGE COVERING THE GULF N OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS GENERATING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO OVER THE SE US COVERING
THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC
N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-81W WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THIS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY SW UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HAVE A FIRM HOLD OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SE WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S
OF 13N BETWEEN TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND THE ABC ISLANDS. THINNING
AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE
LESSER ANTILLES SLIGHT HAZY CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING INTO THE N
CARIBBEAN W OF 58W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N60W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N48W N TO
BEYOND 32N48W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
25N47W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE MOST OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT
TO 30W. A VERY WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE
ASSOCIATED GALE CENTER IS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTEND THROUGH 32N26W TO 23N34W. THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT IS ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DENSE AFRICAN DUST THAT
REMAINS OVER E ATLC FROM 5N-18N E OF 45W SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ
AXIS TO THE S...SEVERELY LIMITING CLOUD FORMATION AND VISIBILITY
ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS
OBSERVED JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 10N JUST E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE TROPICS NEAR
4N40W COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 20N...THE ENTIRE TROPICAL
ATLC...AND A PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE... GENERALLY
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE MOST OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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