[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 1N50W.  ISOLATED WEAK/
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 4N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
WEAK/MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 10W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
COLD FRONT HAS JUST PAST BERMUDA AND LIES FROM 31N65W THRU THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR ANDROS ISLAND CONTINUING INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO 24N85W... THEN DISSIPATING AS A STATIONARY FRONT WNW
TO 27N96W.  A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 60/75 NM WIDE IS ALONG
THE FRONT IN ATLC WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS E OF 70W.  THE FRONT HAS LITTLE REPRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE PICTURES IN THE ERN GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  RETURN FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
WESTERN GULF AS SLY WINDS BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE S-CENTRAL USA.  SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDINESS IS N OF 23N W OF 90W WITH SIMILAR CLOUD COVER
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE W OF 94W.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE NW BAHAMAS.  TOMORROW'S WEATHER WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SOME SHOWERS IN LOUISIANA/S MISSISSIPPI AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AND
INCREASES MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH THE
GULF WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRILLIANT BLUE SKIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH TYPICAL
TRADES IN THE ENHANCED REGION NW OF COLOMBIA.  ONLY ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CUMULUS ARE NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SE
CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AND E
OF 64W NEAR THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS IS DUE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N64W N OF THE
WINDWARDS.  OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN.  NO BIG CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SAVE FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS
CLOUDINESS IN THE E CARIBBEAN.  AFRICAN DUST IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY THOUGH DUST CONCENTRATIONS APPEAR TO BE THINNING AS
IT TRAVERSES THE ATLC.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS NEAR 26N47W WITH AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.  LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE N
OF THE AZORES HAS DISPLACED THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FARTHER S AND W
THAN TYPICAL AND THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH TIME
AS THE LOW NEAR THE AZORES MOVES OUT.  MID/UPPER RIDGING
CONTROLS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 11N55W TO
32N49W AND ALSO IN THE FAR E ATLC ALONG THE NW AFRICAN COAST.
WEAK BROAD TROUGH IS IN BETWEEN... FROM 31N30W TO 23N31W THEN
11N39W.  MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC HAS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET IS BRINGING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-20N E OF
60W.  UPPER RIDGING IS S OF THIS JET... ROUGHLY FROM 6N12W TO
5N40W 8N59W WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE ASSISTING SOME ITCZ TSTMS.

$$
BLAKE


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