[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N30W 4N40W 2N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 7W-10W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-29W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS
PRESENTLY OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA.  THE FRONT EXTENDS W TO THE W
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 24N90W 25N95W.  THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS THINNING OUT WITH SOME BREAKS.
SURFACE WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE 15-20 KT FROM THE ENE.  A 1028
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W INFLUENCING
THE N GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE N OF 27N.  EXPECT THE
WESTERN  EXTENT OF THE GULF FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT WILL BE OVER W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  20-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA
MOSTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA ...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW TO W FLOW DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 65W WHERE
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOME AFRICAN DUST MAY ADVECT
OVER THE SEA AND SPREAD WESTWARD WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5
NM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PRESENTLY A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W
28N70W 24N80W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BROAD 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N51W.   FAIR WEATHER IS FROM
20N-32N BETWEEN 15W-65W.  A STRONG OUTBURST OF AFRICAN DUST
PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.  THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS STILL HAS LIMITED VISIBILITY.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 60W-70W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF
15N BETWEEN 60W AND W AFRICA.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-15N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.  A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM EQ-20N
BETWEEN 37W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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