[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N5W 2N10W 4N19W 2N24W 3N45W S OF
THE EQUATOR ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO
THE EQUATOR E OF 16W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
16W-40W AND S OF 5N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE W ATLC EXITING
THE E US AND CLIPPING THE NW GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE W TO
23N92W WHERE IT DISSIPATES S TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE S GULF
IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING
THE AREA WITH W TO NW UPPER FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD S INTO THE N GULF WITH A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS BEGINNING TO WASH OUT AS RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING DOWN FROM OVER THE SE US COVERING THE W
GULF W OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 20N85W GIVING THE
NW CARIBBEAN UPPER NE TO E FLOW. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS JUST N
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ELONGATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND NOW IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 15N76W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS GIVING THE E AND SW
CARIBBEAN UPPER SW FLOW S OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W
TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA
SURROUNDING THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND FROM THE E WITH THE
EASTERLY TRADES. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 17N
BETWEEN 58W-65W. AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAZY CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND FAR E US IS N OF 27N W
OF 68W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
NEAR 32N73W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE CONTINUING INTO
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. WEAK...NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W OVER THE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N62W AIDING
THE GENERATION OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...NOW AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N62W ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE ATLC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 40W-70W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
BETWEEN 35W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
26N53W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE MOST OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT
TO 30W. A VERY WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE
ASSOCIATED STORM CENTER IS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTEND THROUGH 32N19W TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF THE REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DENSE AFRICAN DUST THAT
COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 5N-18N E OF 42W SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ AXIS
TO THE S...SEVERELY LIMITING CLOUD FORMATION AND VISIBILITY
ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS
OBSERVED JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 10N ON THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE
TROPICS NEAR 6N32W COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 20N...THE ENTIRE
TROPICAL ATLC...AND A PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE MOST OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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