[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W EQ50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 7N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 20W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC REMAINING OVER THE
E US AND CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE N GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W WSW
ALONG 24N93W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 19N96W...RETURNING NW ALONG
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY
FRONT. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS VERY SLOW MOVING AND IS
PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE FROM 19N-27N W OF 95W
INLAND OVER MEXICO TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE S GULF IS UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERING
THE AREA WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING N
OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING INTO THE N
GULF GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER DEW POINTS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING
FEW SHOWERS BECOMING STATIONARY AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS IN THE SW GULF LAST NIGHT IS NOW OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN UPPER
NE FLOW. THE UPPER LOW FROM THE W ATLC LAST NIGHT IS NOW JUST N
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N68W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 14N75W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS GIVING THE E
AND SW CARIBBEAN UPPER SW FLOW S OF A LINE FROM VIRGIN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N64W TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AREA SURROUNDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADES
MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
15N BETWEEN 57W-65W. AFRICAN DUST HAS MOVED OVER BARBADOS GIVING
THE AREA HAZY CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AFRICAN DUST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC ENTERING
THE CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC REMAINING OVER THE
E US N OF 28N W OF 72W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
60 NM E OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA. WEAK...NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 23N80W NE TO BEYOND BERMUDA AIDING
THE GENERATION OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW ATLC JUST N OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N68W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
NE TO 24N62W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS THE ATLC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 40W-70W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 50W BETWEEN
35W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS SE OF BERMUDA NEAR
27N57W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE MOST OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR W ATLC S OF 30N. A VERY WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED
LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED STORM CENTER IS N OF THE REGION WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH 32N23W TO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY N OF THE
REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE
DENSE AFRICAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 5N-20N E OF 40W
SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S...SEVERELY LIMITING CLOUD
FORMATION AND VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 6N32W COVERING THE
E ATLC S OF 20N...THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC...AND A PORTION OF
THE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS
OVER THE MOST OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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