[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N40W INTO S AMERICA NEAR 1S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS W OF 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER MOST
OF THE GLFMEX WITH MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEWD OVER THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA. FURTHER
N...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE E U.S. WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD OVER THE GLFMEX
CURRENTLY FROM N FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE FRONT CONTINUES
INLAND OVER INTERIOR MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. LACKING APPRECIABLE DYNAMICS...ONLY A
NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL.  AS
SUCH...THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SWD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT CLEARS THE S
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.  STILL...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY OVER THE E GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HAS BEEN SHUNTED E OF THE AREA BY THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT RESULTING IN MUCH WEAKER SLY TO WLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT CREATING SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NOSES SEWD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO COLOMBIA. OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD FROM
THE ATLC OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING AN ALREADY
DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA.  E OF THE UPPER LOW...THE
FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT BUT REMAINS VERY DRY
ALOFT.  STILL...ENHANCED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SAL/AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK NEARING
THE LESSER ANTILLES.  CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY EXTENDS
FROM MARTINIQUE SWD INTO N GUYANA AND NE VENEZUELA.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD
KEEPING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SCREAMING EAGLE OVER THE CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME DIFFUSE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
BRISK TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES
OVER THE W ATLC SHIFT EWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A HIGH-OVER-LOW TYPE PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE W HALF OF THE ATLC
WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED OVER THE W ATLC FROM
W CUBA NEWD OVER BERMUDA AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW JUST
NW OF PUERTO RICO 20N67W. FURTHER E...A BROAD/FLAT TROUGH
PREVAILS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET...ESTIMATED TO
TO 120 KT...BETWEEN 15N-25N FROM THE E CARIBBEAN INTO AFRICA
OVER MAURITANIA.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OBSERVED MOVING EWD FROM THE E U.S. INTO THE W ATLC
WATERS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SWD OVER N FLORIDA. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS/LIFT IS CONFINED N OF THE AREA LEAVING ONLY A NARROW
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.  ELSEWHERE...DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS ABSENT OVER ALL BUT THE ITCZ OWING TO THE
NEAR DOMINANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC. CLOUDS/CONVECTION
ARE ESPECIALLY SCARCE OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA WHERE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
AND AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM CANARY
ISLANDS TO THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF DUST
IS S OF 20N E OF 40W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
VISIBILITY MAY BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED BELOW 5 SM WITHIN THIS
AREA.  ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS E/W
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 26N/27N WITH A 1024 MB HIGH PRES
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 27N58W.

$$
RHOME


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