[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
9N11W 6N20W 4N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 41W...2S48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND CLUSTERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N
EAST OF 50W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 22W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TO 60W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS ABOUT THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 84W...MOVING EASTWARD
UNDER THE BROAD EASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW. SOME OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ALREADY ARE REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA BORDER. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE
12/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. MIDDLE TO
UPPER DRY AIR CONTINUES EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS FLOW HAS SPILLED
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SOME
POSSIBLY HAS COME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
WEST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...PASSES OVER THIS
PART OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE LINE 15N81W
16N70W BEYOND 17N60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N39W TO 22N43W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...IS WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N31W 27N37W 22N43W. BROKEN STRATIFORM
CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THIS LINE...AND CONTINUE TO BE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF 22N43W 18N50W 14N60W. THESE STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW
EXISTS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 30N72W JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LAYER
TROUGH WHICH HAVE MADE THEIR WAY EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS...NOW ARE MAKING THEIR PRESENCE FELT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EAST OF 40W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EVENTUALLY ATE UP THE OLD
28N26W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. A COMPARATIVELY NEWER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NOW IS NEAR 29N24W...WITH A
TROUGH GOING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 35N26W. IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT THE 29N24W LOW CENTER AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
NEAR 35N26W ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE SEPARATED WITH TIME.
THE 29N24W LOW CENTER PROBABLY EVENTUALLY WILL BE BY ITSELF
WITHOUT THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT ALONG 21N38W 29N27W BEYOND 32N23W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS EAST OF 20W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.

$$
MT



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