[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
9N12W 7N20W 4N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...2S48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND CLUSTERS WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
2N2W...4N10W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 25W...AND FROM
3N TO 3S BETWEEN 26W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TO 60W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NORTH OF 26N82W 24N90W 20N96W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 77W...MOVING EASTWARD
UNDER THE BROAD EASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE 12/0300 CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW
THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. MIDDLE TO
UPPER DRY AIR CONTINUES EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS FLOW HAS SPILLED
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SOME
POSSIBLY HAS COME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
WEST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...PASSES OVER THIS PART OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE LINE 14N76W 16N67W BEYOND 18N57W
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N39W TO 22N43W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...IS WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N32W 27N38W 23N45W. BROKEN STRATIFORM
CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THIS LINE...AND CONTINUING FROM 23N45W 18N50W
14N60W. THESE STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY.
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW EXISTS WEST OF THE COLD
FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N65W JUST SOUTH
OF BERMUDA. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH HAVE MADE
THEIR WAY EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...NOW ARE MAKING
THEIR PRESENCE FELT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 40W. THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH EVENTUALLY ATE UP THE OLD 28N26W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. A COMPARATIVELY NEWER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER NOW IS NEAR 28N26W...WITH A TROUGH GOING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 35N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG 21N39W 28N28W BEYOND 32N23W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS EAST OF 20W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT.

$$
MT


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