[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W EQ40W 1S45W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
18W-22W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM 15-20 KT SLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE TO A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.  A 70 KT JETSTREAM WITH
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO N FLORIDA ALONG
24N107W 26N97W 29N85W 27N80W. EXPECT SIMILAR SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION AT 1800 UTC MONDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY
S OF 17N.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH AXIS ALONG
85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A LINE
OF THIN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO N
COLOMBIA TO GUADELOUPE.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PREDOMINATELY S OF 17N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 28N35W 24N40W.  A BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS N OF SPAIN NEAR 45N6W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW TO THE CANARY ISLAND NEAR 32N17W.  AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.  A STRONGER OUTBURST OF DUST WITH
LOW SURFACE VISIBILITIES ARE FROM 5N-20N E OF 30W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIS N OF 20N AND W OF
70W.  TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 15N
AND E OF 50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 10N30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN
10W-55W.

$$
FORMOSA


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