[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N10W...2N20W...THE EQUATOR AT 30W...1N40W 1N43W 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 4S TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF WATERS. THIS FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF MAINLAND U.S.A.
DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE LOW CENTER WITH THIS TROUGH WAS FOUND
IN EASTERN MISSOURI SIX HOURS AGO...AND NOW THIS LOW IS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AREA. IT REALLY SHOT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD BEEN ANALYZED FROM
LOUISIANA TO TEXAS SIX HOURS AGO WAS NOT FOUND AT 10/0600 UTC.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ALSO IS EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/0900 UTC. DENSE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 29N80W 27N84W 24N90W 19N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
RIDGE FLOWS GENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE THE MOST PROMINENT IN THE WESTERN THREE-FOURTHS OF THE
AREA...LOOKING AT THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM
10/0900 UTC. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...JUST WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...CURVING OVER AND
BEYOND 18N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS THE MOST
PRONOUNCED FROM 80W TO THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM COLOMBIA TO 18N60W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 23N56W
BEYOND 32N49W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W TO 22N50W TO 15N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH...AT LEAST FROM THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AT ITS EASTERN EDGE TO 70W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N47W
28N43W BEYOND 32N42W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY AN OBVIOUS BAND OF
CLOUDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS CLOUD BAND. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN THE 23N29W 7N28W TROUGH AND
60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW CENTER IS NEAR
23N29W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N29W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 14N26W
TO 7N28W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN A BIG RIDGE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE 23N29W
LOW CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF THE COLD
FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N66W JUST WEST OF
BERMUDA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N46W TO
26N39W BEYOND 32N31W.

$$
MT

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