[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W 1N31W EQ36W 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-16W. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 23W-30W AND 2N-4N
BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. WEAK 1002 MB LOW PRES AT THE SFC NEAR
20N95W WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG THE NW GULF COAST WITH RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT OVER E TEXAS AND THE AL/MS/LA COAST. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CUBA WITH THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...ACROSS NW VENEZUELA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 23N47W
BEYOND 32N46W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 32N42W TO 26N45W TO 15N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
23N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS W OF THE FRONT.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW CENTER IS NEAR
24N29W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN A BIG RIDGE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE 23N29W
LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 32N23W
15N48W. THE LATEST VISIBLE SAT PIC SHOWS AREA OF WIDESPREAD DUST
EXTENDING OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 6N-23N E OF 35W...AND FROM
18N-32N BETWEEN 27W-40W.

$$
RJO/BERG


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