[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

6N11W 2N20W 2N30W 2N36W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4S TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND
34W...AND WITHIN 240 NM TO 280 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1S34W 3N17W

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF WATERS. THIS FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH WHICH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHES FROM AN EASTERN MISSOURI LOW CENTER TO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
CONNECTED TO THIS BOUNDARY...GOING FROM EAST TEXAS FIROUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ALSO IS EVIDENT IN
THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/0300 UTC. DENSE
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 20N97W 26N87W
27N77W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
RIDGE FLOWS GENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE THE MOST PROMINENT...LOOKING AT THE CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/0300 UTC. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW STARTS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...JUST WEST OF LAKE
MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...CURVING OVER AND BEYOND 20N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS THE MOST PRONOUNCED FROM THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM COLOMBIA AND 20N EAST OF 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 26N51W
BEYOND 34N48W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 32N48W TO 23N50W TO 15N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 27N45W BEYOND
32N43W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY AN OBVIOUS BAND OF CLOUDS...AND
THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN THE 23N28W 7N28W TROUGH AND 60W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW CENTER IS NEAR
23N28W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM 32N30W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 14N26W
TO 7N28W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW A BIG RIDGE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 23N28W
LOW CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF THE COLD
FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N67W. AN EASTERN
SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 32N32W TO 23N40W TO 14N49W.

$$
MT

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