[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092254
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W 2N30W 2N36W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W...
AND 1N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
EQ-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W...EQ-2N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED BETWEEN 85W-90W. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SE INTO E TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
30N94W TO SE TEXAS.WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N72W IS KEEPING STRONG SLY FLOW
OVER THE GULF. ELSEWHERE E OF 90N...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N INTO
THE W ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A STRONG SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS A 70K JET EXTENDING FROM S OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH HIGH CLOUDS S
OF THE JET EXTENDING FROM N COLUMBIA NE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. W OF 70W...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
DOMINATE THE AREA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 81W-84W DUE TO SURFACE TRADEWINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED BETWEEN 85W-90W.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS AT
15Z ALONG 55W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLANTIC NE INTO
THE E ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS FROM 10N50W TO 35N30W. THE RIDGE
FORMS A REX BLOCK OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR
23N27W. AT THE SURFACE A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N72W WITH A RIDGE S INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD
FROM EXTENDS FROM 32N48W TO 17N59W.  MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT N OF 30N.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 30N WITHIN 180 NM.  E OF 45W... HIGH
PRES DOMINATES THE AREA.
$$
TORRES


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