[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W 2N30W 2N36W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W...
AND 1N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
EQ-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W...EQ-2N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE E COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND S QUEBEC.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED BETWEEN 85W-90W. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
DIVING SE INTO E TEXAS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE SE TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM
E OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N72W IS KEEPING STRONG SLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. ELSEWHERE
E OF 90N...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE E COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND S QUEBEC.
THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A STRONG SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A 70K
JET EXTENDING FROM S OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND INTO
THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH HIGH CLOUDS S OF THE JET EXTENDING
FROM N COLUMBIA NE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. W OF 70W...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE AREA.
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
19N60W 14N70W.  BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W DUE TO SURFACE TRADEWINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE E COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND S QUEBEC.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED BETWEEN 85W-90W. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS AT 15Z ALONG 55W. UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLANTIC NE INTO THE E ATLANTIC WITH
THE AXIS FROM 10N50W TO 35N30W. THE RIDGE FORMS A REX BLOCK OVER
THE E ATLANTIC WITH THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR 23N27W. AT THE SURFACE A
1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N72W WITH A
RIDGE S INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FROM EXTENDS FROM A GALE NEAR
40N52W TO 35N50W 31N50W TO THE GREATER ANTILLES.  MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT N OF 30N.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 30N WITHIN 180 NM.  E OF
45W... HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AREA. THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF DUST OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM
10N-30N E OF 35W.

$$
RJO


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