[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N20W 1N30W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 6W-13W FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 14W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 1N-3N FROM 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  A 1024 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO NEAR 91W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTH INTO TEXAS
NEAR 30N102W THEN CONTINUING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED 25O NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  LATER THIS
AFTERNOON A STRONG SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE IMPACT TO THE NW WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE E OF 93N...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEST TO
NEAR 15N68W.  ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM BRANCH FROM
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 61W-77W CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE HIGHER
CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST S OF 13N E OF 69W OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 31N77W...RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH OVER CUBA THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 12N85W. ELSEWHERE W OF 70W...STRONG TO
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
31N77W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH OVER CUBA THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 12N85W AND THEN WEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 22N91W.  FURTHER EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
33N57W...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 28N E OF 65W WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40KTS AND SEAS FROM 12FT-20FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-53W. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEXES SYSTEM MAKES
IT WAY INTO THE ARE NEAR 30N53W AND CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT NEAR 17N71W...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 118 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER EAST
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  A
1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 16N54W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER NEAR 23N27W...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE
AREA FROM 5N-26N BETWEEN 18W-39W.

$$
JP/JA



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